Intricate choices after the coalition falls: Pakistan’s emerging political scene

August 25, 2008

Shamas-ur-Rehman Toor

The political history Pakistan saw an unprecedented coalition of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) that emerged to form a government after the election in February 2008. In the beginning, it seemed both surprising yet a pleasant political development. Surprising because PML-N and PPP have been bitter political rivals. Pleasant because people thought it was beginning of a new era of politics. The sentiment of reconciliation was high in the air of Pakistan. After tragic death of Mohtarma Benazie Bhutto, people thought that PML-N and PPP had taken the right decision to end the rivalry in the best interest of Pakistan.

The coalition was also widely seen as the defeat of Pervez Musharraf, the then President of Pakistan. The coalition government brought a sigh of relief in the political environment. The government was formed comfortably and the air of hope started to blow in Pakistan. Promises were made to reinstate the judges. Pledges were made to keep the democracy in the forefront. Objectives were set to turn around the country and take it to new heights of development.

However, there was a group of skeptics who always cautioned that the coalition was formed on the foundation of sand and will eventually collapse, sooner or later. Given the history of politics in Pakistan, this skepticism carried considerable weight. Musharraf camp also hinted several times that the coalition would crumble. Cracks appeared in the coalition when PML-N first pulled out its ministers from the government upon getting disappointed because of excessive delay on reinstatement of the judges. However, the allied parties continued to work together to find an amicable solution to restore the judiciary in the country. PPP’s (or probably Zardari’s own) attitude during the last few weeks hinted at the growing distance between PML-N and PPP. Reportely, Zardari was not ready to accept Justice Iftekhar Chowdhary as the Chief Justice of Pakistan. His widely spoken fear was that, if reinstated, Iftekhar Chowdhary would reopen the corruption cases against Zardari.

PML-N continued to stand firm on its stand for judges. As a result, the inevitable finally happened. After a week of forcing Musharraf out of presidency, the coalition of PML-N and PPP could no longer stand on its own feet. Differences between PML-N and PPP grew too stark to carry the weight of a shared government. Nawaz Sharif finally made an announcement that his party would sit on the opposition benches. This announcement was expected for several days. In his announcement to the media, Nawaz Sharif lamented that the PPP had repeatedly violated the agreement and dishonored the conditions of the coalition.

Although largely unsaid in the media, it can be seen that PML-N was unhappy about the PPP’s nomination of Asif Ali Zardari for the vacated post of the President. The announcement was made without any consultation with the government allies, claimed PML-N’s resources. As a result, in today’s announcements, PML-N has declared Justice (Rtd) Said Uzzaman Siddiqi as its presidential nominee.

As a result, the political scene in Pakistan has grown complex and uncertain. No body knows what happens next. Vacuum created by the departure of Musharraf has grown wider and difficult. As I see, there are few possibilities in future.

One: Asif Ali Zardari takes over as the President with the support of Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam group (PML-Q) and Muttahida Quomi Movement (MQM). In this case, there is a good chance that the current government will continue to work for next few months. However, since PML-N is going to sit on the opposition benches, they would take the case of the government with iron fist. Demonstrations will be made in favor of reinstatement of judges. The government might come up with a plan – probably minus-one formula in which Justice Iftekhar Choudhary is either eliminated or given another post. There is likelihood that the judges and lawyers would refuse to accept this formula. The result would be chaos, poor governance, and no progress in terms of economy. During this time, the issues related to Afghanistan and Taliban are likely to remain unresolved. Upon increase in pressure from the US, Pakistan might face even more serious situation if political instability continues to prevail. In an year or so, the circumstances might even go worse so much so that the military will have to intervene. This would be unfortunate and tragic. The whole cycle of military rule will be repeated and then democracy might be restored in few years time.

Now, there is a second possibility. Asif Ali Zardari takes over as the President and reinstate the judiciary unconditionally. In this case, PML-N would sit on the opposition benches and wait for their turn in elections of 2012. During this time, PPP, PML-Q, and MQM will try their best to exploit the political scene so that they can win the election of 2012. Given the poor potential in this likely government, economic and political situation is likely to worsen again. If the government is not able to tactfully solve the issues of Afghanistan and Taliban, internal security and situation on borders are likely to go out of control. We do not know if to what extant the US would intervene in case situation goes this way. An Afghanistan- or Iraq-like Pakistan can not be left to a chance. Intervention of the US can lead to far reaching repercussions. There are already too many hints from the US that it can not leave nuclear weapons of Pakistan in unsafe hands.

There is yet another possibility. The military takes over the government again and declare Marshall Law. But General Kiani does not seem to be prepared for that. However, if he does so, it will be a far more complex situation than it looks at the moment.

No matter what political scene emerges, any government in Pakistan faces far bigger challenges at the moment. The economy in the peril and the borders are porous. Threats to the internal security are more than ever before. Pressure from the US and other countries is increasing on the issues of Afghanistan and Taliban. Also, with emerging scenes in Kashmir, relations with India will also be a big challenge in the near future. Not to mention that the concerns related to power crisis, food, and currency inflation continue to worry the masses. Under such state of affairs, Pakistan needs political stability without delay; a government that can focus on external relations, border security, economic overhaul, and internal security is the need of the hour. However, the state of the affairs does not seem to warranty any such government emerging in the political scene of Pakistan in the near future.